Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Matt Festa

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 195 lb · Age 33

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024615.70190023.2241.23
2025544.12630054.2561.08
2026233.78660166.2691.31
7 Seasons15104.2623713238.22511.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.22
ERA current pace3.78
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.25 3.07 3.97 4.88 5.69
FIP
2.80 3.23 3.70 4.18 4.60
K%
19.8% 21.4% 23.1% 24.8% 26.4%
BB%
5.6% 6.6% 7.7% 8.8% 9.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
44
ERA3.78
60
BB%6.9%
79 +28 vs proj
K%23.4%
60
xwOBA allowed0.305
61
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo92.7
23
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
57
Whiff%23.3%
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Slider Stuff+105
74
Cutter Stuff+95
7
Sinker Stuff+98
20
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Festa, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-13: 0.2992026-09-14: 0.2962026-09-18: 0.2962026-09-19: 0.2962026-09-20: 0.2962026-09-21: 0.2972026-09-22: 0.2972026-09-23: 0.2972026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.3052026-09-27: 0.305 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Festa, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.8%Sweeper: 39.6%Sinker: 6.5%Cutter: 4.6%Slider: 0.4%Unknown: 0.1% FF49% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 49%ST 40%SI 6%FC 5%SL 0%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.4 mphST83 mphSinker: 6% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCutter: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSlider: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 72.0 mphUN72 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.5% 326 102 qualified
SL 43.2% 310 105 qualified
SI 5.9% 42 98 limited sample
FC 5.4% 39 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 1"
Weight195 lb
Debut2018-07-14
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.11
K% Δ+0.006

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.354
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.305

Festa’s wOBA-against sits at 0.354, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.305 — a gap of 0.050, 1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 67 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-20 vs HOU1 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ STL1 ER / 3 K2.1 IP
2026-04-08 vs KC0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP
2026-04-05 vs CHC2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs CHC0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP