Mithrandir Metrics
Player CIN Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / CIN

Michael Toglia

Player · Bats/Throws S/L · 6' 5", 226 lb · Age 28

Cards
7
Modules
1
Live Δ
--
Club CIN Position -- Roster profile Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
202445862872510.218.311.456.767
20253372258113.190.258.353.611
2026282300.115.179.192.371
5 Seasons10951141954215.198.275.384.659
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
32
Plate skills9 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.287
xwOBA current pace0.222
xwOBA rolling p500.279
Observed weight13%
xwOBA
0.236 0.256 0.279 0.301 0.321
wOBA
0.112 0.156 0.204 0.252 0.295
ISO
0.114 0.143 0.176 0.208 0.238
K%
28.5% 31.1% 33.9% 36.8% 39.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.9 · 1B
32 Regression applied
Range Runs-1.8 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.4% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 34.1% · rebadged research
4
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
34
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
75
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

14 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Toglia, Michael · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 57% of plotted batted ballsCenter 57%Right field third: 29% of plotted batted ballsOppo 29% LF 328 CF 404 RF 325 2026-03-23 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 41.02026-03-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 14.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 33.02026-08-11 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 63.3 / LA 33.02026-08-14 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 18.02026-08-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -39.02026-08-16 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 5.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 47.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -7.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.9 / LA 19.02026-08-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 43.02026-08-17 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 15.02026-08-17 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 9.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 36.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Toglia, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 54%54%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 30%30%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 70%70%Hard hit: 56%56% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

No Live State delta is available for this profile yet.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Fielding72026-08-211 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.148
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.285 xwOBA | 20 HRProjection