Mithrandir Metrics
Player PHI Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / PHI

Bryse Wilson

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 255 lb · Age 28

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club PHI Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024544.043490104.2821.27
2025026.65205047.1281.82
2026004.33160035.1311.33
9 Seasons20234.79179574496.13641.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.34
ERA current pace3.67
ERA rolling p504.08
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.75 3.38 4.08 4.79 5.42
FIP
3.13 3.59 4.10 4.61 5.06
K%
15.7% 17.3% 19.0% 20.8% 22.4%
BB%
3.3% 4.1% 5.0% 5.8% 6.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
47
ERA3.67
63
BB%2.0%
100 +25 vs proj
K%20.5%
38 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
38 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
91 +56 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
23
Hard-hit allowed48.2%
3
Whiff%15.1%
3
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+96
15
Curveball Stuff+96
2
Cutter Stuff+101
48
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wilson, Bryse · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.322 2026-09-12: 0.3032026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.3032026-09-22: 0.3032026-09-23: 0.3032026-09-24: 0.3032026-09-25: 0.3032026-09-26: 0.322 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wilson, Bryse · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 56%56%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wilson, Bryse · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 34.8%Sinker: 32.4%4-Seam Fastball: 17.4%Split-Finger: 8.4%Curveball: 7.0% FC35% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 35%SI 32%FF 17%FS 8%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wilson, Bryse · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mphSinker: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 8% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.3 mphFS85 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.7% 95 105 limited sample
FC 36.7% 95 101 limited sample
FB 14.3% 37 100 limited sample
CB 7.3% 19 96 limited sample
CH 5.0% 13 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.33
K% Δ+0.029

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.338
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.322

Wilson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.338, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.322 — a gap of 0.016, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 35 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-03-14Run prevention outpaced the underlying contact signals
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.7% K | 5.00 ERAProjection