Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago White Sox Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago White Sox

Jake Rogers

C · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 201 lb · Age 31

Cards
12
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago White Sox Position C Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20243374361101.197.255.352.607
2025142142330.187.277.333.610
2026171172341.161.276.287.563
6 Seasons1270149221484.195.271.374.645
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
36
Defense4 metrics
44
Speed1 metrics
24
Plate skills12 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.297
xwOBA current pace0.267
xwOBA rolling p500.283
Observed weight45%
xwOBA
0.247 0.264 0.283 0.302 0.320
wOBA
0.231 0.251 0.274 0.296 0.316
ISO
0.109 0.129 0.152 0.175 0.195
K%
24.9% 27.0% 29.2% 31.4% 33.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
53 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity86.6
35
Hard-hit%34.7%
33 -40 vs proj
xBA0.266
9
xSLG0.459
36
xwOBA0.267
17 -37 vs proj
BB%13.8%
96 +56 vs proj
Bat speed67.3
24
K%29.3%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.2 · C
16
Catcher Throwing0.6 · C
66
Framing Runs-0.2 · C
48
Pop Time1.9 · C
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
24
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.1% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
38
Fastball Stuff+66
0
Mithrandir Stuff+63
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
58
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
65
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342 · validated
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rogers, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.267 2026-09-12: 0.2722026-09-13: 0.2722026-09-14: 0.2722026-09-18: 0.2672026-09-19: 0.2672026-09-20: 0.2672026-09-21: 0.2672026-09-22: 0.2672026-09-23: 0.2672026-09-24: 0.2672026-09-25: 0.2672026-09-26: 0.267 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2025Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rogers, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 25%25%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 75%75%Hard hit: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Jake · 2025 arsenal snapshot Eephus: 49.0%Other: 40.8%Knuckleball: 10.2% EP49% · 53 mphprimary pitch EP 49%FA 41%KN 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Jake · 2025 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Eephus: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 81″ drop, 52.9 mphEP53 mphOther: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 75.8 mphFA76 mphKnuckleball: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 67″ drop, 64.5 mphKN64 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 11 66 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height5' 11"
Weight201 lb
Debut2019-07-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.039
wOBA Δ-0.033

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.274
xwOBA (deserved)0.267

Rogers’s wOBA sits at 0.274, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.267 — a gap of 0.007, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 181 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting42026-08-19Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding82026-09-101 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.095
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.306 xwOBA | 11 HRProjection
2026-08-15 @ DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E0-4 | 2 K
2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E1-3 | K
2026-04-20 @ BOS0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E1-4 | K, RBI, SB
2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 1 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E0-2 | K, RBI
2026-04-09 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E0-2 | HBP, K, R