Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 30 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| Debut | 2021-06-19 |
Player profile / Detroit Tigers
Matt Vierling
CF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 205 lb · Age 30
Club Detroit Tigers
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status IL-60
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 567 | 80 | 133 | 16 | 6 | .257 | .312 | .423 | .735 |
| 2025 | 100 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 2 | .239 | .310 | .307 | .617 |
| 2026 | 291 | 24 | 55 | 5 | 4 | .207 | .255 | .335 | .590 |
| 6 Seasons | 1922 | 225 | 437 | 40 | 27 | .250 | .307 | .383 | .690 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
44
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.296 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.304 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.300 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.285
0.300
0.316
0.330
wOBA
0.253
0.269
0.286
0.303
0.319
ISO
0.109
0.126
0.144
0.163
0.179
K%
16.1%
17.4%
18.9%
20.4%
21.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
34
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity87.7
48
Hard-hit%37.3%
45
-29 vs proj
xBA0.315
46
xSLG0.467
38
xwOBA0.304
52
BB%6.5%
27
Bat speed69.7
51
K%16.8%
83
+31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · CF
26
Arm Strength87.2 · CF
7
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs1.8 · CF
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · CF
39
Bolts1.0 · CF
11
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
48
Sprint Speed28.3 · CF
75
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
77
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.314 · validated
98
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.027 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Vierling’s wOBA sits at 0.286, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.304 — a gap of 0.017, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 310 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-05-18 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 5 | 2026-07-29 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.296 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA | 8 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-20 @ BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | BB |