Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| Debut | 2021-06-19 |
Player profile / Detroit Tigers
Matt Vierling
CF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 205 lb · Age 29
Club Detroit Tigers
Position CF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 567 | 80 | 133 | 16 | 6 | .257 | .312 | .423 | .735 |
| 2025 | 100 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 2 | .239 | .310 | .307 | .617 |
| 2026 | 262 | 23 | 49 | 5 | 3 | .206 | .261 | .336 | .597 |
| 6 Seasons | 1893 | 224 | 431 | 40 | 26 | .251 | .309 | .384 | .693 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.296 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.300 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.282
0.298
0.315
0.329
wOBA
0.258
0.275
0.293
0.312
0.328
ISO
0.110
0.127
0.147
0.166
0.184
K%
15.8%
17.3%
18.8%
20.4%
21.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
32
-15 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
41
Hard-hit%36.2%
35
-33 vs proj
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.458
30
xwOBA0.300
43
BB%7.1%
32
Bat speed69.8
52
K%16.4%
82
+33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · CF
21
Arm Strength87.2 · CF
10
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs1.7 · CF
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
45
Bolts1.0 · CF
15
Sprint Speed28.4 · CF
79
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
80
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.323 · validated
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
143 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.020 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Vierling’s wOBA sits at 0.293, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.300 — a gap of 0.007, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 281 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.75 | Fly-ball rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Pages, Andy LAD · R | 0.73 | Chase rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Dubón, Mauricio ATL · R | 0.72 | Barrel ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Varsho, Daulton TOR · L | 0.69 | xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-05-18 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA | 8 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-20 @ BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | BB |