Mithrandir Metrics
Player St. Louis Cardinals Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals

Caleb Ferguson

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 3", 225 lb · Age 30

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club St. Louis Cardinals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024144.64620154.1671.49
2025543.58700065.1511.16
2026105.18351133.0311.70
8 Seasons25173.80368157360.03961.33
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal5 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
5
ERA5.18
23
BB%12.7%
14
K%20.7%
39
xwOBA allowed0.334
28
Barrel allowed7.1%
56
Fastball velo92.3
19
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
47
Whiff%17.1%
9
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+95
6
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Slider Stuff+98
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ferguson, Caleb · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.334 2026-09-13: 0.3342026-09-14: 0.3342026-09-18: 0.3342026-09-19: 0.3342026-09-20: 0.3342026-09-21: 0.3342026-09-22: 0.3342026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3342026-09-25: 0.3342026-09-26: 0.3342026-09-27: 0.334 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ferguson, Caleb · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferguson, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 33.4%Cutter: 25.6%4-Seam Fastball: 24.9%Slurve: 16.0% SI33% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 33%FC 26%FF 25%SV 16% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferguson, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 33% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphCutter: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSlurve: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 80.1 mphSV80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 34.2% 89 103 limited sample
FC 27.3% 71 95 limited sample
FB 22.7% 59 99 limited sample
SL 15.8% 41 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 3"
Weight225 lb
Debut2018-06-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.377
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.334

Ferguson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.377, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.334 — a gap of 0.043, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 33 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-07-28Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.