{
  "date": "2026-09-30",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-30T08:01:31.412468",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 72,
    "odds_matched_count": 38,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 13,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 849846,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2007,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.224,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2008,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 849848,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2133,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1922,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.03,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 849841,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1844,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2038,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1845,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.32,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 849841,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 580,
      "over_odds": 580,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2224,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1995,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.82,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
      "hitter_id": 656941,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 849841,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 280,
      "over_odds": 280,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2029,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_id": 514888,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 849846,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1904,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2112,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1905,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Willson Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 575929,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 849848,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 510,
      "over_odds": 510,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1745,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1918,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1746,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_id": 701538,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 849842,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 520,
      "over_odds": 520,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1949,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1772,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.53,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Carlos Correa",
      "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa",
      "hitter_id": 621043,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 849846,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 770,
      "over_odds": 770,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1788,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.197,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1789,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.64,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "player_name": "Alex Bregman",
      "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman",
      "hitter_id": 608324,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 849842,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 560,
      "over_odds": 560,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1726,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1895,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1728,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 36.78,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2007,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.03
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1844,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.32
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 580,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.82
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 280,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1904,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.12
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willson Contreras",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 510,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1745,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.55
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 520,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.53
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Carlos Correa",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 770,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1788,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.64
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Alex Bregman",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 560,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1726,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 36.78
      }
    ]
  }
}