{ "date": "2026-09-26", "generated_at": "2026-09-26T08:04:50.951067", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 99, "odds_matched_count": 56, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 21, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823245, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 450, "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063, "expected_home_runs": 0.2311, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2064, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "game_id": 824057, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1895, "expected_home_runs": 0.2101, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1896, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.85, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824057, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1867, "expected_home_runs": 0.2066, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1868, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.41, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 823653, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 515, "over_odds": 515, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921, "expected_home_runs": 0.2133, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1922, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.43, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824949, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 280, "over_odds": 280, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2114, "expected_home_runs": 0.2375, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2115, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.76, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824219, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 380, "over_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1684, "expected_home_runs": 0.1844, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1685, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 41.52, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team": "MIN", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 823653, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 405, "over_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "expected_home_runs": 0.1793, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1643, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 41.23, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "game_id": 823165, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1643, "expected_home_runs": 0.1795, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1645, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.89, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824949, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 585, "over_odds": 585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1863, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 39.86, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824219, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1617, "expected_home_runs": 0.1764, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1618, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 39.51, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "KC", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1895, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.85 }, { "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "team": "KC", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1867, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 45.41 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 515, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.43 }, { "player_name": "Nick Kurtz", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 280, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2114, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.76 }, { "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1684, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 41.52 }, { "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 41.23 }, { "player_name": "Willy Adames", "team": "SF", "opponent": "LAD", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1643, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 40.89 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 39.86 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1617, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 39.51 } ] } }