{
  "date": "2026-09-25",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-25T23:45:02.208355",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 225,
    "odds_matched_count": 105,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 29,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824058,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2218,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1991,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823652,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2169,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1951,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.5,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 822760,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1926,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2139,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1927,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.78,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823652,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2146,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1933,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823489,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.202,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1831,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.52,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823248,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2007,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1819,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.74,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_id": 670242,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 823652,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1709,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1874,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.171,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.27,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824058,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1684,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1844,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1686,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.72,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823735,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1741,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1913,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1743,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.43,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_id": 670623,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824947,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1784,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1965,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1785,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.5
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1926,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.78
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.73
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.52
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.74
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1709,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.27
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1684,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 41.72
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1741,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 41.43
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1784,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.12
      }
    ]
  }
}