{
  "date": "2026-09-19",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-19T23:45:16.470148",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 207,
    "odds_matched_count": 111,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 25,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822843,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2039,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.228,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.204,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824137,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1876,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2078,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1878,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_id": 662139,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822843,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2144,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1931,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.9,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823003,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 590,
      "over_odds": 590,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2406,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2141,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822843,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2164,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824461,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2247,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2013,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_id": 642715,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823899,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1727,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1896,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1729,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823976,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1729,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1898,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.173,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825029,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1824,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1668,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "player_name": "Jarren Duran",
      "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran",
      "hitter_id": 680776,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822921,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 715,
      "over_odds": 715,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2106,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.19,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.97,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2039,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1876,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.88
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.9
      },
      {
        "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 590,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 46.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willy Adames",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1727,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1729,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jarren Duran",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 715,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.97
      }
    ]
  }
}