{
  "date": "2026-09-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-13T23:47:20.475578",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 96,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 33,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824952,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2098,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2355,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.21,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824628,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2235,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2004,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823815,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1957,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2178,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1959,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.71,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822764,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2208,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1983,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.43,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 825033,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2153,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1938,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.11,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823495,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2306,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2061,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824869,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2145,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1932,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822764,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2033,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1841,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_id": 670242,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 823658,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1745,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1918,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1747,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.35,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-13",
      "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_id": 605141,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823815,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 525,
      "over_odds": 525,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1973,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2198,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1974,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2098,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1957,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.71
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.43
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.11
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.73
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1745,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.35
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 525,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1973,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.19
      }
    ]
  }
}