{ "date": "2026-07-01", "generated_at": "2026-07-01T18:46:38.852125", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 112, "odds_matched_count": 91, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 27, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823446, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 355, "over_odds": 355, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2052, "expected_home_runs": 0.2297, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2054, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_id": 665489, "team": "TOR", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "game_id": 822791, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "expected_home_runs": 0.2237, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2005, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 824174, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 490, "over_odds": 490, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2046, "expected_home_runs": 0.2289, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2048, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.8, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Alex Bregman", "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "hitter_id": 608324, "team": "CHC", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 824660, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2082, "expected_home_runs": 0.2334, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2084, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824419, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 375, "over_odds": 375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1901, "expected_home_runs": 0.2109, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1902, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.03, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team": "BOS", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 824740, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009, "expected_home_runs": 0.2243, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.201, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823446, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 585, "over_odds": 585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2008, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824419, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 530, "over_odds": 530, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2019, "expected_home_runs": 0.2255, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.202, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Gavin Sheets", "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets", "hitter_id": 657757, "team": "SD", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 824660, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2159, "expected_home_runs": 0.2432, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.216, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "game_id": 824905, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 570, "over_odds": 570, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2045, "expected_home_runs": 0.2288, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2046, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 355, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2052, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NYM", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.4 }, { "player_name": "Jose Altuve", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 490, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2046, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 48.8 }, { "player_name": "Alex Bregman", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2082, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 48.4 }, { "player_name": "Jake Burger", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1901, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.03 }, { "player_name": "Willson Contreras", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.4 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 45.0 }, { "player_name": "Josh Jung", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 530, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2019, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.6 }, { "player_name": "Gavin Sheets", "team": "SD", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2159, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "STL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 570, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2045, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 } ] } }