{ "date": "2026-06-16", "generated_at": "2026-06-16T08:03:11.612843", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 189, "odds_matched_count": 112, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 36, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 822888, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.227, "expected_home_runs": 0.2575, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2272, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824504, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102, "expected_home_runs": 0.236, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2104, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 824912, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "expected_home_runs": 0.2471, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.219, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "game_id": 824912, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "expected_home_runs": 0.2277, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2037, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824182, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 445, "over_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003, "expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2004, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824182, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 435, "over_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1937, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.08, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824182, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 400, "over_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889, "expected_home_runs": 0.2094, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1891, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.67, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 823939, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 430, "over_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883, "expected_home_runs": 0.2086, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1884, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.49, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 824912, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947, "expected_home_runs": 0.2166, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1948, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.41, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 823939, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992, "expected_home_runs": 0.2222, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1993, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.16, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Corey Seager", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.227, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "team": "SF", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Matt Olson", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "SF", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Riley Greene", "team": "DET", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Christian Walker", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.08 }, { "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "team": "DET", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 48.67 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.49 }, { "player_name": "Willy Adames", "team": "SF", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.41 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.16 } ] } }