{
  "date": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-14T23:32:56.984226",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 99,
    "odds_matched_count": 56,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 22,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823452,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2213,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2501,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2214,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824666,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2175,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823046,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.189,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2095,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1892,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.7,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 822724,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2327,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2077,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 823938,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2268,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.203,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds",
      "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds",
      "hitter_id": 668804,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824993,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2327,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2078,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Brenton Doyle",
      "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle",
      "hitter_id": 686668,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824666,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2296,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2053,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825071,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1773,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1952,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1774,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 822724,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 590,
      "over_odds": 590,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2227,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2519,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2228,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823938,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.247,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.219,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2213,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.189,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.7
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brenton Doyle",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1773,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 590,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2227,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}