{
  "date": "2026-06-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-13T08:03:28.566963",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 97,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824587,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.264,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2321,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824426,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2379,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2118,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 823213,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2356,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.21,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824100,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2296,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2053,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822725,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2094,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.235,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2095,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824100,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2029,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_id": 621439,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823694,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2104,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1899,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.91,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824100,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2094,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1891,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824587,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2766,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2417,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822725,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2088,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2342,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2089,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2094,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.91
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2088,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      }
    ]
  }
}