{
  "date": "2026-06-09",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-09T08:02:49.313198",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 198,
    "odds_matched_count": 106,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 42,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824105,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2179,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2458,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2181,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824830,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2425,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2155,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824429,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2194,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1972,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.1,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824830,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2195,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1972,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.13,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824999,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.223,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2523,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2232,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824105,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.216,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2434,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2161,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823290,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1911,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2121,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1912,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.33,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824830,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1928,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2142,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1929,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.04,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822805,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.207,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1871,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.1,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823374,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1975,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1794,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2179,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.1
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.13
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.223,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.216,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1911,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.33
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1928,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.04
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.1
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.76
      }
    ]
  }
}