{
  "date": "2026-06-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-07T08:02:53.870674",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 189,
    "odds_matched_count": 108,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 40,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822890,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2311,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2628,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2313,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824670,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2167,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2443,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2168,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824916,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2078,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2329,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2079,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822807,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2223,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1994,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.39,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_id": 700932,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822890,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2163,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.35,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_id": 642715,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824670,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.214,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1928,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.81,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 823941,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2011,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1823,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.66,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824349,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 520,
      "over_odds": 520,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2514,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2224,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822807,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2104,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1899,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.31,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "player_name": "Ryan O'Hearn",
      "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn",
      "hitter_id": 656811,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824916,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 640,
      "over_odds": 640,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2321,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2311,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2167,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2078,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.39
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.35
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willy Adames",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.81
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.66
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 520,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.31
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ryan O'Hearn",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 640,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      }
    ]
  }
}