{
  "date": "2026-06-06",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-06T08:03:21.010973",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 171,
    "odds_matched_count": 95,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 22,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824269,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2454,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2177,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823292,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2131,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2397,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2132,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824269,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2552,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2254,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 823942,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1971,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1791,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 822891,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1901,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1733,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.93,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_id": 700932,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822891,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1801,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1986,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1802,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.03,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_id": 467793,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 825075,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 610,
      "over_odds": 610,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2172,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1953,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Tyler Stephenson",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson",
      "hitter_id": 663886,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823048,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 640,
      "over_odds": 640,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2169,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1951,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.5,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_id": 662139,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822808,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1959,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.178,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.37,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-06",
      "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_id": 666182,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823292,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 725,
      "over_odds": 725,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.211,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1904,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.06,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2131,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.93
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1801,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.03
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 610,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler Stephenson",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 640,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.5
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.37
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 725,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 42.06
      }
    ]
  }
}