{ "date": "2026-06-04", "generated_at": "2026-06-04T08:02:01.103451", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 108, "odds_matched_count": 52, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 19, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 823542, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2437, "expected_home_runs": 0.2793, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2438, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 824672, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2407, "expected_home_runs": 0.2754, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2408, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823457, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 415, "over_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2403, "expected_home_runs": 0.2748, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2404, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team": "SD", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823457, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 435, "over_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2231, "expected_home_runs": 0.2524, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2232, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "game_id": 824753, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2457, "expected_home_runs": 0.282, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2458, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823457, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 465, "over_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223, "expected_home_runs": 0.2514, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2224, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.8, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 823542, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2342, "expected_home_runs": 0.2668, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2343, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 825076, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2128, "expected_home_runs": 0.2393, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2129, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "game_id": 824753, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 710, "over_odds": 710, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185, "expected_home_runs": 0.2466, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2186, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "player_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 825076, "lineup_slot": 6, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 425, "over_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1717, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.48, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2437, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Brent Rooker", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2407, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2403, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Manny Machado", "team": "SD", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2231, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "BOS", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2457, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.6 }, { "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.8 }, { "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2342, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.4 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2128, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.4 }, { "player_name": "Adley Rutschman", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "BOS", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 710, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Max Muncy", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 6, "hr_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.48 } ] } }