{
  "date": "2026-06-01",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-01T08:04:09.793682",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 99,
    "odds_matched_count": 51,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 15,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 825078,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1991,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.222,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1992,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823050,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1983,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823131,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2204,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1979,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.34,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823131,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2205,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.198,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.84,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 823781,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1826,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2016,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1827,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.98,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_id": 694671,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823050,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 570,
      "over_odds": 570,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1894,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.21,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1897,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.82,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823050,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1646,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1799,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1647,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.38,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_id": 593871,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823131,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1764,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1941,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1765,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.32,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
      "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
      "hitter_id": 660271,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825078,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 250,
      "over_odds": 250,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2138,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1927,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.99,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "player_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 682663,
      "team": "MIA",
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822730,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 585,
      "over_odds": 585,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1681,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1841,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1683,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 35.43,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1991,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.73
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.34
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.84
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1826,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.98
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 570,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1894,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 42.82
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1646,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.38
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1764,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.32
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 250,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 37.99
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "MIA",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 585,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1681,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 35.43
      }
    ]
  }
}