{ "date": "2026-05-31", "generated_at": "2026-05-31T10:29:10.200276", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 207, "odds_matched_count": 115, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 31, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 825001, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2124, "expected_home_runs": 0.2388, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2126, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "game_id": 824430, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978, "expected_home_runs": 0.2204, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.198, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.34, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824512, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2144, "expected_home_runs": 0.2413, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2145, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 824187, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066, "expected_home_runs": 0.2314, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2067, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 825001, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 390, "over_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1946, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.32, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 824187, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1964, "expected_home_runs": 0.2187, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1965, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.52, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "James Wood", "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team": "WSH", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 822729, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 485, "over_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.221, "expected_home_runs": 0.2497, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2211, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team": "TB", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "game_id": 822976, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 360, "over_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1901, "expected_home_runs": 0.2108, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1902, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.03, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 825001, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2075, "expected_home_runs": 0.2325, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2076, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "player_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team": "COL", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "game_id": 824354, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1803, "expected_home_runs": 0.1988, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1805, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.09, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Brent Rooker", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2124, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "BOS", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.34 }, { "player_name": "Matt Olson", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2144, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.32 }, { "player_name": "Christian Walker", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1964, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.52 }, { "player_name": "James Wood", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.221, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.2 }, { "player_name": "Junior Caminero", "team": "TB", "opponent": "LAA", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1901, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.03 }, { "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2075, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.4 }, { "player_name": "Hunter Goodman", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SF", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1803, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 46.09 } ] } }