{
  "date": "2026-05-30",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-31T10:31:33.496020",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 171,
    "odds_matched_count": 99,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 28,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 825000,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2023,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.226,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2024,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822893,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2233,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 825000,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2475,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2193,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824431,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1959,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1781,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.37,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 825000,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1783,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1964,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1784,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.49,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_id": 664040,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823375,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1773,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1952,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1774,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_id": 694671,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 822893,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 570,
      "over_odds": 570,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2073,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2323,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2074,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822975,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1873,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2074,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1874,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.99,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823945,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1742,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1914,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1743,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.26,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823132,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1911,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1741,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2023,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.37
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1783,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.49
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1773,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 570,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2073,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1873,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.99
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1742,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.26
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.2
      }
    ]
  }
}