{
  "date": "2026-05-29",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-28T23:32:52.261682",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 98,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 31,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 825002,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2204,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.249,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2205,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822894,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2164,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2439,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2165,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824515,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2243,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.201,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 822732,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2407,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2141,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_id": 664040,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823377,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1917,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2128,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1918,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.51,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824594,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 445,
      "over_odds": 445,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2035,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1844,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.23,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823623,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2383,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2121,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 822894,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1812,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1999,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1814,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.36,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_id": 593871,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823623,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1918,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.213,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.192,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.94,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824515,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2167,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1949,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.84,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2204,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2164,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1917,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.51
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 445,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 48.23
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1812,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.36
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1918,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.94
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.84
      }
    ]
  }
}