{ "date": "2026-05-26", "generated_at": "2026-05-26T00:30:33.338884", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 216, "odds_matched_count": 119, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 35, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 822898, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2197, "expected_home_runs": 0.2481, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2199, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 823949, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 430, "over_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1915, "expected_home_runs": 0.2126, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1916, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.45, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team": "SD", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823294, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 520, "over_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1998, "expected_home_runs": 0.2229, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.34, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 825004, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "expected_home_runs": 0.207, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1871, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.3, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 822898, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 515, "over_odds": 515, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2195, "expected_home_runs": 0.2478, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2196, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.8, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "George Springer", "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team": "TOR", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 822811, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858, "expected_home_runs": 0.2055, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1859, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.74, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team": "CWS", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 824597, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 640, "over_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 823216, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 400, "over_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763, "expected_home_runs": 0.194, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1764, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.89, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "game_id": 824758, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992, "expected_home_runs": 0.2222, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1993, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.76, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 824106, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1826, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.75, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Corey Seager", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2197, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1915, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.45 }, { "player_name": "Jackson Merrill", "team": "SD", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1998, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 46.34 }, { "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.3 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 515, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2195, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 45.8 }, { "player_name": "George Springer", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.74 }, { "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "team": "CWS", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "team": "SF", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.89 }, { "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "BOS", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.76 }, { "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "team": "KC", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.75 } ] } }