{
  "date": "2026-05-23",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-22T23:35:13.855947",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 225,
    "odds_matched_count": 123,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 35,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 823222,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2273,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2035,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 825080,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2108,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2367,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2109,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 824920,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1999,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.223,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.97,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 823300,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2157,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1941,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824674,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2075,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1875,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.22,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 823300,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2132,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1921,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 824920,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1935,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2151,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1936,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.45,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823300,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1953,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1776,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.22,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 823543,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1787,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1969,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1788,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.61,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 824518,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.252,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2229,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2108,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1999,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.97
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.22
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1935,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.45
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.22
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1787,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.61
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}