{ "date": "2026-04-12", "generated_at": "2026-04-12T09:54:21.195809", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 225, "odds_matched_count": 127, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 41, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "game_id": 824859, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2064, "expected_home_runs": 0.2312, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2066, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 824696, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 380, "over_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2306, "expected_home_runs": 0.2622, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2307, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824533, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 410, "over_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2251, "expected_home_runs": 0.255, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2252, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 824696, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2219, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 824293, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 400, "over_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.215, "expected_home_runs": 0.2421, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2151, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824533, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 390, "over_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143, "expected_home_runs": 0.2412, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2144, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 823966, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 430, "over_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042, "expected_home_runs": 0.2284, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2043, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team": "SD", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 823317, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 465, "over_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042, "expected_home_runs": 0.2284, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2044, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.8, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824533, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2265, "expected_home_runs": 0.2568, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2266, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "player_name": "James Wood", "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team": "WSH", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 823804, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 485, "over_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2332, "expected_home_runs": 0.2655, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2333, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "SF", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2064, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.6 }, { "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2306, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Mike Trout", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2251, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.215, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jo Adell", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "team": "SD", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.8 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2265, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.6 }, { "player_name": "James Wood", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2332, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.2 } ] } }