{
  "date": "2026-04-10",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-10T08:33:18.405567",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 234,
    "odds_matched_count": 130,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 35,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823482,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.228,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2588,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2282,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823318,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2245,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2013,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823482,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 375,
      "over_odds": 375,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2233,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823482,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.203,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 824534,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1977,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2203,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1978,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.31,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823968,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1964,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2186,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1965,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.92,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 823643,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2064,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2312,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2066,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824941,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.211,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1903,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.06,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823968,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2205,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.198,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.17,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "game_id": 823643,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1758,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1934,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.176,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.74,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.228,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 375,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1977,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.31
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1964,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.92
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2064,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.06
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.17
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "NYM",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1758,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.74
      }
    ]
  }
}