{ "date": "2026-04-08", "generated_at": "2026-04-08T08:14:56.878783", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 243, "odds_matched_count": 136, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 32, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "game_id": 824617, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 345, "over_odds": 345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "expected_home_runs": 0.2382, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2122, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.41, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 823564, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "expected_home_runs": 0.2218, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1991, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.07, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "game_id": 823234, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 415, "over_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194, "expected_home_runs": 0.2157, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1941, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 823726, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 400, "over_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1861, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.77, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 823646, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 320, "over_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1959, "expected_home_runs": 0.218, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.196, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.24, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 824050, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 490, "over_odds": 490, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946, "expected_home_runs": 0.2164, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.18, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 824050, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 485, "over_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1832, "expected_home_runs": 0.2024, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1834, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.16, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team": "SD", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "game_id": 823403, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 520, "over_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1942, "expected_home_runs": 0.2159, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1943, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.66, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 824050, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 415, "over_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174, "expected_home_runs": 0.1912, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1741, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "player_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824374, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 765, "over_odds": 765, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.194, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.17, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Pete Alonso", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "CWS", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.41 }, { "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.07 }, { "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SF", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.2 }, { "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 47.77 }, { "player_name": "Juan Soto", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1959, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.24 }, { "player_name": "Zach Neto", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 490, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.18 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1832, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 44.16 }, { "player_name": "Jackson Merrill", "team": "SD", "opponent": "PIT", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1942, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.66 }, { "player_name": "Jo Adell", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.2 }, { "player_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 765, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.17 } ] } }