{
  "date": "2026-04-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-07T06:14:11.342170",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 261,
    "odds_matched_count": 140,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 44,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 824051,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2022,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2259,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2024,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823727,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 445,
      "over_odds": 445,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2093,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2348,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2094,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "game_id": 823648,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2086,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2339,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2087,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824618,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2425,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2154,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_id": 664040,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823402,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.219,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1968,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822916,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1987,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2215,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1988,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.81,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 823235,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2138,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1926,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.75,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 824051,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1983,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.221,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1984,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.49,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824618,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2145,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1932,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_id": 670623,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824375,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 500,
      "over_odds": 500,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2132,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2398,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2133,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2022,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 445,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2093,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "NYM",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2086,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1987,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.81
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.75
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1983,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.49
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.73
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 500,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2132,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.0
      }
    ]
  }
}