{
  "date": "2026-04-05",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-05T09:28:46.015196",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 216,
    "odds_matched_count": 115,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 34,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824459,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2112,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2373,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2114,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823566,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2409,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2142,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 825102,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 375,
      "over_odds": 375,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2356,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.21,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824781,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2296,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2052,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824131,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1983,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824781,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2049,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2293,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.205,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 825025,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2177,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1957,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.68,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "game_id": 823238,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1907,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2116,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1909,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.21,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824053,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2164,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-05",
      "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_id": 645277,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825102,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2244,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2011,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2112,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 375,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2049,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.68
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "NYM",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1907,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.21
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}