{
  "date": "2026-04-04",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-04T08:42:27.471072",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 189,
    "odds_matched_count": 103,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 35,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824460,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2198,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2482,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2199,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825104,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2273,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2034,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823404,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2038,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2279,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.204,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824460,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2167,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.195,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.44,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823404,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2363,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2106,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 822757,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2354,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2098,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823569,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1957,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2178,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1958,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.11,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 824054,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2207,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1981,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824132,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1872,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2073,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1874,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-04",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824054,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1922,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2134,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1923,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2198,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2038,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.44
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1957,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.11
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1872,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1922,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.46
      }
    ]
  }
}