{
  "date": "2026-04-03",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-03T07:55:57.369424",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 207,
    "odds_matched_count": 114,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 32,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823568,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2514,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2224,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 825026,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2163,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.35,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823568,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.196,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2182,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1961,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825103,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2227,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1997,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824786,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2008,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2241,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2009,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 823240,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1896,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2102,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1897,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823406,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1896,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2102,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1897,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_id": 664040,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823406,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1887,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.58,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_id": 670623,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 825026,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 500,
      "over_odds": 500,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1965,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2188,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1967,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.95,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 822919,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2492,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2207,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.35
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.196,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.88
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2008,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1896,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.88
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1896,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.88
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.58
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 500,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1965,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.95
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.8
      }
    ]
  }
}