{
  "date": "2026-04-01",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-01T07:26:11.776007",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 270,
    "odds_matched_count": 221,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 78,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824860,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2422,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2774,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2424,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824211,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2164,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2439,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2166,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 823970,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1973,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2198,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1975,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824940,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 365,
      "over_odds": 365,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2353,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2683,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2354,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824860,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2265,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2568,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2266,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Triston Casas",
      "hitter_name": "Triston Casas",
      "hitter_id": 671213,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824211,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2152,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2423,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2153,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823321,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2137,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2404,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2138,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 824536,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2245,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2012,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824940,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2217,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2506,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2218,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824940,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2402,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2136,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2422,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2164,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1973,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 365,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2353,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2265,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Triston Casas",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2152,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2137,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2217,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      }
    ]
  }
}