{
  "date": "2026-03-31",
  "generated_at": "2026-03-31T07:13:22.153870",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 148,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 36,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824861,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 375,
      "over_odds": 375,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2129,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2394,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2131,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
      "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
      "hitter_id": 677800,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824212,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2041,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2283,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2043,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Triston Casas",
      "hitter_name": "Triston Casas",
      "hitter_id": 671213,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824212,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2214,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1988,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.58,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823322,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2492,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2207,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824942,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2155,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2427,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2156,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823158,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2233,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Trent Grisham",
      "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham",
      "hitter_id": 663757,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823158,
      "lineup_slot": 7,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2223,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1995,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.59,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 822836,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1882,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2085,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1884,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Willson Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 575929,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824212,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2252,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2017,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823077,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 315,
      "over_odds": 315,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2314,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2067,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 375,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2129,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2041,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Triston Casas",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.58
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2155,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trent Grisham",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 7,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.59
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1882,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willson Contreras",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 315,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.88
      }
    ]
  }
}