{
  "date": "2026-03-30",
  "generated_at": "2026-03-30T10:09:45.398601",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 189,
    "odds_matched_count": 153,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 42,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824863,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2336,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2085,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824135,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2455,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2817,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2456,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823320,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2231,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2525,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2232,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_id": 670242,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824135,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2474,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2193,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824943,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.246,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2182,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_id": 666176,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824702,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2122,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2385,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2123,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Kyle Stowers",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers",
      "hitter_id": 669065,
      "team": "MIA",
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 823890,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.227,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2032,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Anthony Santander",
      "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander",
      "hitter_id": 623993,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 822834,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.202,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2257,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2021,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824214,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2246,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2013,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824135,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.273,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.239,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2455,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2231,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jo Adell",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2122,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Stowers",
        "team": "MIA",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Anthony Santander",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.202,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.2
      }
    ]
  }
}