{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-14", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-14T23:50:50.751070", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 13, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 824465, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.89, "skill_score": 60.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 59.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.72, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8692, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7659, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6414, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5102, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.386, "prob_4_plus": 0.8692, "prob_5_plus": 0.7659, "prob_6_plus": 0.6414, "prob_7_plus": 0.5102, "prob_8_plus": 0.386, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.65, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Carlos Jorge", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Sal Stewart", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.9, "expected_contact_quality": 65.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.2, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Jorge", "matchup_score": 92.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.4, "expected_contact_quality": 61.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 822765, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 15.9, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7998, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6668, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5225, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3855, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2688, "prob_4_plus": 0.7998, "prob_5_plus": 0.6668, "prob_6_plus": 0.5225, "prob_7_plus": 0.3855, "prob_8_plus": 0.2688, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.956, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kevin McGonigle", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "John Peck", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brett Callahan", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Hao-Yu Lee", "matchup_score": 59.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.6 }, { "hitter_name": "John Peck", "matchup_score": 59.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 824386, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "skill_score": 87.4, "opportunity_score": 51.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7831, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6444, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4973, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3607, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.247, "prob_4_plus": 0.7831, "prob_5_plus": 0.6444, "prob_6_plus": 0.4973, "prob_7_plus": 0.3607, "prob_8_plus": 0.247, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Miguel Vargas", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Munetaka Murakami", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Luisangel Acu\u00f1a", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tristan Peters", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 179.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 71.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 61.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 825034, "pitcher_id": 669203, "pitcher_name": "Corbin Burnes", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 33.4, "opportunity_score": 14.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26262.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Griffin Conine", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Otto Lopez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 84.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Griffin Conine", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 73.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 824465, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 38.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Tommy Edman", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josue De Paula", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Enrique Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 118.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 824308, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 27.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.125, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake McCarthy", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brett Sullivan", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "TJ Rumfield", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cole Carrigg", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zac Veen", "matchup_score": 81.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 63.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.2, "expected_contact_quality": 64.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 63.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 824629, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.024, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 49.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 102.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 43.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 106.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 40.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 823656, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 36.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.961, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Jones", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Anthony Volpe", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 90.0 }, { "hitter_name": "George Lombard Jr.", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 823656, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 28.0, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.225, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.961, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brooks Lee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Kreidler", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 96.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Emmanuel Rodriguez", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 825034, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 5.6, "opportunity_score": 76.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 14.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.975, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Lawlar", "matchup_score": 70.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Tim Tawa", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 116.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 38.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.0, "expected_contact_quality": 89.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 823006, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 6.3, "opportunity_score": 49.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Thomas Saggese", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Leo Bernal", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 64.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Church", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Thomas Saggese", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 823575, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.44, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4409, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2723, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1529, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.079, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.4409, "prob_5_plus": 0.2723, "prob_6_plus": 0.1529, "prob_7_plus": 0.079, "prob_8_plus": 0.038, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Carson Benge", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 28.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 25.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 140.7 }, { "hitter_name": "A.J. Ewing", "matchup_score": 23.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.0, "expected_contact_quality": 104.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "game_pk": 824308, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.54, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.125, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jase Bowen", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ty France", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Freddy Fermin", "matchup_score": 33.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 58.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Campusano", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 63.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:50:50.749647+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 656794, "pitcher_name": "Sean Newcomb", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 804636, "pitcher_name": "Jonah Tong", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687273, "pitcher_name": "Quinn Mathews", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 807739, "pitcher_name": "Kade Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }