{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-12", "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-12T23:49:19.360895", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 12, "skipped_start_count": 18, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 823819, "pitcher_id": 607192, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "skill_score": 62.4, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 98.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8226, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6983, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5589, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4223, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3021, "prob_4_plus": 0.8226, "prob_5_plus": 0.6983, "prob_6_plus": 0.5589, "prob_7_plus": 0.4223, "prob_8_plus": 0.3021, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.44, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.94, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 95.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 95.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 89.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 824630, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "skill_score": 20.9, "opportunity_score": 39.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7782, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.638, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4901, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3538, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.241, "prob_4_plus": 0.7782, "prob_5_plus": 0.638, "prob_6_plus": 0.4901, "prob_7_plus": 0.3538, "prob_8_plus": 0.241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 87.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 84.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "matchup_score": 81.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 822768, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 50.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.214, "prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "prob_8_plus": 0.214, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.957, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 78.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 824955, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 37.5, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7392, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5878, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.436, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3028, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.198, "prob_4_plus": 0.7392, "prob_5_plus": 0.5878, "prob_6_plus": 0.436, "prob_7_plus": 0.3028, "prob_8_plus": 0.198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 94.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 172.1, "expected_contact_quality": 69.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 87.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 83.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.7, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 823170, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 15.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 20.8, "opportunity_score": 67.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 29.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 15.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.935, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 89.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 76.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 825035, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 90.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 107.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 824712, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.3, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.326, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "prob_6_plus": 0.326, "prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.037, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 824870, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 28.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.451, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "prob_5_plus": 0.451, "prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.3, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 61.4 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 823737, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5955, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4223, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2754, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1666, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0942, "prob_4_plus": 0.5955, "prob_5_plus": 0.4223, "prob_6_plus": 0.2754, "prob_7_plus": 0.1666, "prob_8_plus": 0.0942, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.3, "expected_contact_quality": 106.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.7, "expected_contact_quality": 114.8 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 46.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.4, "expected_contact_quality": 101.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 824630, "pitcher_id": 605280, "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 7.7, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 94.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 38.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 123.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 112.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 825035, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 20.9, "opportunity_score": 37.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.206, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.115, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "prob_6_plus": 0.206, "prob_7_plus": 0.115, "prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 33.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.4, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "game_pk": 824224, "pitcher_id": 685299, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "skill_score": 2.6, "opportunity_score": 42.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.487, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3142, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1849, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1004, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0507, "prob_4_plus": 0.487, "prob_5_plus": 0.3142, "prob_6_plus": 0.1849, "prob_7_plus": 0.1004, "prob_8_plus": 0.0507, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 40.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 38.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.5, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 33.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:49:19.360687+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 808825, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Sears", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693686, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674841, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702885, "pitcher_name": "Cesar Perdomo", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 682982, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Espino", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641835, "pitcher_name": "Tim Mayza", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656794, "pitcher_name": "Sean Newcomb", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }