{ "date": "2026-07-17", "generated_at": "2026-07-16T23:33:46.612520", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 14, "skipped_start_count": 13, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824901, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.77, "skill_score": 66.6, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.8618, "prob_5_plus": 0.7549, "prob_6_plus": 0.6275, "prob_7_plus": 0.4949, "prob_8_plus": 0.371, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "matchup_score": 84.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "matchup_score": 83.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824414, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 56.4, "opportunity_score": 66.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965, "prob_4_plus": 0.7753, "prob_5_plus": 0.6341, "prob_6_plus": 0.4858, "prob_7_plus": 0.3497, "prob_8_plus": 0.2374, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.8, "expected_contact_quality": 88.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 104.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824090, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "prob_4_plus": 0.6956, "prob_5_plus": 0.5346, "prob_6_plus": 0.3814, "prob_7_plus": 0.254, "prob_8_plus": 0.1588, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 43.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824090, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "skill_score": 31.7, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 46.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "prob_4_plus": 0.6917, "prob_5_plus": 0.53, "prob_6_plus": 0.3768, "prob_7_plus": 0.25, "prob_8_plus": 0.1557, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 76.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 76.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.5, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 823766, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 90.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.0, "expected_contact_quality": 109.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.7, "expected_contact_quality": 69.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 825060, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "prob_4_plus": 0.6619, "prob_5_plus": 0.4953, "prob_6_plus": 0.343, "prob_7_plus": 0.2211, "prob_8_plus": 0.1337, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 64.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.6, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 823115, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 48.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.932, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 71.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824170, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 49.2, "opportunity_score": 49.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 67.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 52.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.0, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.7, "expected_contact_quality": 107.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824655, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.2, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.6, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 823115, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "skill_score": 23.7, "opportunity_score": 61.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.42, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "prob_4_plus": 0.6145, "prob_5_plus": 0.4426, "prob_6_plus": 0.2937, "prob_7_plus": 0.181, "prob_8_plus": 0.1043, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.932, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 46.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.2, "expected_contact_quality": 114.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 40.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 104.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824332, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.131, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 72.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 70.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 68.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824655, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094, "prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 108.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824981, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.38, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 35.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 71.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.4291, "prob_5_plus": 0.2619, "prob_6_plus": 0.1452, "prob_7_plus": 0.0741, "prob_8_plus": 0.0351, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 70.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 105.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "game_pk": 824901, "pitcher_id": 615698, "pitcher_name": "Cal Quantrill", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.09, "skill_score": 8.4, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "prob_4_plus": 0.3707, "prob_5_plus": 0.2128, "prob_6_plus": 0.1106, "prob_7_plus": 0.0527, "prob_8_plus": 0.0233, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 15.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25722.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 27.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.4, "expected_contact_quality": 116.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 26.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 22.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 687562, "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693686, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701656, "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687312, "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }