{
  "date": "2026-07-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-16T08:02:14.630882",
  "projection_type": "strikeout_props",
  "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay",
  "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f",
  "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic",
  "assumptions": {
    "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts",
    "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f",
    "matchup_projection_type": "matchups",
    "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic",
    "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.",
    "distribution": {
      "name": "negative_binomial_style",
      "alpha": 0.0619,
      "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2",
      "thresholds": [
        4,
        5,
        6,
        7,
        8
      ]
    },
    "adjustment_bounds": {
      "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35,
      "score_multiplier_range": [
        0.94,
        1.06
      ],
      "final_multiplier_range": [
        0.85,
        1.15
      ]
    }
  },
  "projected_start_count": 1,
  "skipped_start_count": 1,
  "predictions": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-16",
      "game_pk": 823440,
      "pitcher_id": 605400,
      "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "team_id": 143,
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent_team_id": 121,
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "lineup_source": "projected",
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "temperature_f": 82.0,
      "wind_speed_mph": 7.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.44,
      "skill_score": 53.1,
      "opportunity_score": 47.9,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL",
      "support_label": "Strong Skill",
      "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 48.8,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3,
      "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.14,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026,
      "prob_4_plus": 0.7492,
      "prob_5_plus": 0.6004,
      "prob_6_plus": 0.4494,
      "prob_7_plus": 0.3152,
      "prob_8_plus": 0.2082,
      "context": {
        "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1,
        "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71,
        "lineup_source": "projected",
        "lineup_confidence": "projected",
        "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
        "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0,
        "temperature_f": 82.0,
        "wind_speed_mph": 7.0,
        "wind_direction": "in",
        "environment_summary": "neutral",
        "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0,
        "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006,
        "projected_batting_order_top_5": [
          {
            "spot": 1,
            "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
            "weight": 1.08
          },
          {
            "spot": 2,
            "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
            "weight": 1.05
          },
          {
            "spot": 3,
            "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette",
            "weight": 1.03
          },
          {
            "spot": 4,
            "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco",
            "weight": 1.02
          },
          {
            "spot": 5,
            "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien",
            "weight": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "top_hitter_matchups": [
          {
            "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.",
            "matchup_score": 67.5,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.0,
            "expected_contact_quality": 109.5
          },
          {
            "hitter_name": "Brett Baty",
            "matchup_score": 58.4,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1,
            "expected_contact_quality": 101.7
          },
          {
            "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez",
            "matchup_score": 57.7,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9,
            "expected_contact_quality": 113.8
          }
        ],
        "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219
      }
    }
  ],
  "skipped_starts": [
    {
      "pitcher_id": 681035,
      "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott",
      "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter."
    }
  ]
}