{ "date": "2026-06-13", "generated_at": "2026-06-13T08:05:04.183982", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824426, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "prob_4_plus": 0.8466, "prob_5_plus": 0.7324, "prob_6_plus": 0.5998, "prob_7_plus": 0.465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3421, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 186.1, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 822802, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.7998, "prob_5_plus": 0.6668, "prob_6_plus": 0.5225, "prob_7_plus": 0.3855, "prob_8_plus": 0.2688, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.085, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 72.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.8, "expected_contact_quality": 98.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.3, "expected_contact_quality": 146.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824019, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 70.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "prob_4_plus": 0.7692, "prob_5_plus": 0.6262, "prob_6_plus": 0.4772, "prob_7_plus": 0.3414, "prob_8_plus": 0.2303, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 822802, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "prob_7_plus": 0.34, "prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.085, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824587, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824749, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 89.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.7, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 77.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 72.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824426, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 103.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 61.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 823776, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 89.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 65.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824749, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 822725, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.062, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 823213, "pitcher_id": 676962, "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.673, "prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 56.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824508, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.09, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 99.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.7, "expected_contact_quality": 96.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824100, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 71.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 47.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 38.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824100, "pitcher_id": 681347, "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "prob_4_plus": 0.5923, "prob_5_plus": 0.4188, "prob_6_plus": 0.2724, "prob_7_plus": 0.1643, "prob_8_plus": 0.0926, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 71.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824587, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.5607, "prob_5_plus": 0.3861, "prob_6_plus": 0.2439, "prob_7_plus": 0.1426, "prob_8_plus": 0.0778, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 37.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 135.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 32.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824995, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "prob_4_plus": 0.5292, "prob_5_plus": 0.3546, "prob_6_plus": 0.2175, "prob_7_plus": 0.1232, "prob_8_plus": 0.0651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 46.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 107.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 40.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 822725, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "prob_4_plus": 0.5038, "prob_5_plus": 0.33, "prob_6_plus": 0.1975, "prob_7_plus": 0.1091, "prob_8_plus": 0.0561, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.062, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 64.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 148.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 33.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 823694, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.4738, "prob_5_plus": 0.3019, "prob_6_plus": 0.1754, "prob_7_plus": 0.0939, "prob_8_plus": 0.0468, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 47.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 109.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 36.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.7, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 32.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 823616, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 26.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 137.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 26.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 135.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 21.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-13", "game_pk": 824828, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.21, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "prob_4_plus": 0.3951, "prob_5_plus": 0.2328, "prob_6_plus": 0.1244, "prob_7_plus": 0.0611, "prob_8_plus": 0.0278, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 13.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 22.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.2, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 21.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.8, "expected_contact_quality": 90.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 18.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694346, "pitcher_name": "Trey Gibson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669199, "pitcher_name": "Lake Bachar", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683155, "pitcher_name": "Joey Estes", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686790, "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }