{ "date": "2026-06-08", "generated_at": "2026-06-08T08:02:27.941137", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 12, "skipped_start_count": 3, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 824427, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "prob_4_plus": 0.7878, "prob_5_plus": 0.6507, "prob_6_plus": 0.5043, "prob_7_plus": 0.3676, "prob_8_plus": 0.253, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.0, "expected_contact_quality": 145.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 822806, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 88.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 8.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "prob_4_plus": 0.7772, "prob_5_plus": 0.6367, "prob_6_plus": 0.4887, "prob_7_plus": 0.3524, "prob_8_plus": 0.2398, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 74.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 823218, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.59, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "prob_4_plus": 0.7651, "prob_5_plus": 0.6209, "prob_6_plus": 0.4714, "prob_7_plus": 0.3359, "prob_8_plus": 0.2256, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.911, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 59.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 103.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 824025, "pitcher_id": 681293, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.116, "prob_4_plus": 0.7414, "prob_5_plus": 0.5906, "prob_6_plus": 0.439, "prob_7_plus": 0.3056, "prob_8_plus": 0.2002, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 73.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.9, "expected_contact_quality": 83.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 67.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 824998, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 107.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 824427, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 71.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 166.0, "expected_contact_quality": 105.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 64.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 85.5 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 824998, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "prob_4_plus": 0.6238, "prob_5_plus": 0.4527, "prob_6_plus": 0.3029, "prob_7_plus": 0.1883, "prob_8_plus": 0.1095, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.5, "expected_contact_quality": 110.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 43.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 39.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 822806, "pitcher_id": 571578, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "matchup_score": 40.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryson Stott", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.7, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 824829, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.5398, "prob_5_plus": 0.3651, "prob_6_plus": 0.2262, "prob_7_plus": 0.1295, "prob_8_plus": 0.0692, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.0, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 31.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 29.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 823289, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "prob_4_plus": 0.5363, "prob_5_plus": 0.3616, "prob_6_plus": 0.2233, "prob_7_plus": 0.1274, "prob_8_plus": 0.0678, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 46.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 823289, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "prob_6_plus": 0.206, "prob_7_plus": 0.115, "prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 45.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.1, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 45.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 37.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "game_pk": 823218, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "prob_4_plus": 0.3991, "prob_5_plus": 0.2362, "prob_6_plus": 0.1268, "prob_7_plus": 0.0625, "prob_8_plus": 0.0286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.911, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 51.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 813349, "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }