{ "date": "2026-06-02", "generated_at": "2026-06-01T23:33:20.261692", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823129, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "prob_4_plus": 0.8335, "prob_5_plus": 0.7136, "prob_6_plus": 0.5771, "prob_7_plus": 0.4412, "prob_8_plus": 0.3196, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.91, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 81.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 93.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823541, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "prob_4_plus": 0.7943, "prob_5_plus": 0.6594, "prob_6_plus": 0.5141, "prob_7_plus": 0.3773, "prob_8_plus": 0.2615, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.078, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 183.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.0 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 84.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 79.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824918, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.762, "prob_5_plus": 0.6169, "prob_6_plus": 0.467, "prob_7_plus": 0.3317, "prob_8_plus": 0.2221, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 89.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.5, "expected_contact_quality": 113.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823052, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.7514, "prob_5_plus": 0.6032, "prob_6_plus": 0.4523, "prob_7_plus": 0.3179, "prob_8_plus": 0.2105, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 78.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 822971, "pitcher_id": 656427, "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 71.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.7459, "prob_5_plus": 0.5963, "prob_6_plus": 0.4449, "prob_7_plus": 0.3111, "prob_8_plus": 0.2048, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.4, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823460, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 72.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.8, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 52.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.2, "expected_contact_quality": 63.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823541, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.078, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.7, "expected_contact_quality": 116.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "matchup_score": 52.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.5, "expected_contact_quality": 82.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823782, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "prob_4_plus": 0.693, "prob_5_plus": 0.5315, "prob_6_plus": 0.3784, "prob_7_plus": 0.2513, "prob_8_plus": 0.1567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 55.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 51.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824918, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 41.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.0, "expected_contact_quality": 114.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824754, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.6784, "prob_5_plus": 0.5144, "prob_6_plus": 0.3615, "prob_7_plus": 0.2368, "prob_8_plus": 0.1455, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 57.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 104.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 55.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.3, "expected_contact_quality": 86.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824675, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 28.8, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 63.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824189, "pitcher_id": 681347, "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.652, "prob_5_plus": 0.484, "prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 104.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.4, "expected_contact_quality": 107.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 825079, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "prob_4_plus": 0.6207, "prob_5_plus": 0.4493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2999, "prob_7_plus": 0.1858, "prob_8_plus": 0.1078, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.3, "expected_contact_quality": 68.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 41.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 119.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 39.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824511, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.113, "prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.023, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.2, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.8, "expected_contact_quality": 126.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823052, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 41.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.1, "expected_contact_quality": 85.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823700, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 58.2, "opportunity_score": 71.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.7, "expected_contact_quality": 115.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 37.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824511, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.5607, "prob_5_plus": 0.3861, "prob_6_plus": 0.2439, "prob_7_plus": 0.1426, "prob_8_plus": 0.0778, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.023, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 48.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 825079, "pitcher_id": 641778, "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "prob_4_plus": 0.5166, "prob_5_plus": 0.3423, "prob_6_plus": 0.2074, "prob_7_plus": 0.116, "prob_8_plus": 0.0605, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 47.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 39.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 36.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 118.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 822728, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.029, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.1, "expected_contact_quality": 105.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Liam Hicks", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 53.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 824026, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.35, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "prob_4_plus": 0.4232, "prob_5_plus": 0.2567, "prob_6_plus": 0.1415, "prob_7_plus": 0.0717, "prob_8_plus": 0.0338, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 41.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "game_pk": 823460, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.389, "prob_5_plus": 0.2278, "prob_6_plus": 0.1209, "prob_7_plus": 0.0589, "prob_8_plus": 0.0267, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 33.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryson Stott", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 52.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 25.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 571927, "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 813349, "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686790, "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }