{ "date": "2026-06-01", "generated_at": "2026-06-01T08:04:53.706983", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 11, "skipped_start_count": 6, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 824027, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 25.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 75.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 61.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 72.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 823702, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "skill_score": 52.9, "opportunity_score": 34.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.03, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.8068, "prob_5_plus": 0.6764, "prob_6_plus": 0.5334, "prob_7_plus": 0.3965, "prob_8_plus": 0.2786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.98, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 78.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 823050, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "prob_7_plus": 0.329, "prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 93.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.7, "expected_contact_quality": 77.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 84.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 822730, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 74.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "prob_4_plus": 0.6633, "prob_5_plus": 0.4969, "prob_6_plus": 0.3445, "prob_7_plus": 0.2224, "prob_8_plus": 0.1346, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.948, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.6, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 44.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 825078, "pitcher_id": 686218, "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 64.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 825078, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 76.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 11.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "prob_5_plus": 0.466, "prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 115.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 823781, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 39.1, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.5825, "prob_5_plus": 0.4085, "prob_6_plus": 0.2633, "prob_7_plus": 0.1573, "prob_8_plus": 0.0878, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.972, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 42.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 38.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.3, "expected_contact_quality": 99.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 38.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 107.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 823131, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "prob_4_plus": 0.5607, "prob_5_plus": 0.3861, "prob_6_plus": 0.2439, "prob_7_plus": 0.1426, "prob_8_plus": 0.0778, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 18.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.6, "expected_contact_quality": 121.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 25.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.8, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 24.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 136.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 824027, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 39.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "prob_4_plus": 0.5328, "prob_5_plus": 0.3581, "prob_6_plus": 0.2204, "prob_7_plus": 0.1253, "prob_8_plus": 0.0665, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 42.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.4, "expected_contact_quality": 98.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 822730, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "prob_4_plus": 0.5166, "prob_5_plus": 0.3423, "prob_6_plus": 0.2074, "prob_7_plus": 0.116, "prob_8_plus": 0.0605, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.948, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 102.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 42.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.6, "expected_contact_quality": 135.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "game_pk": 823050, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 48.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "prob_7_plus": 0.064, "prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 62.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.0, "expected_contact_quality": 90.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680744, "pitcher_name": "Ty Madden", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 679883, "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681810, "pitcher_name": "Austin Warren", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }