{ "date": "2026-05-31", "generated_at": "2026-05-31T09:03:38.926226", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 23, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 823944, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "prob_4_plus": 0.8085, "prob_5_plus": 0.6787, "prob_6_plus": 0.5362, "prob_7_plus": 0.3992, "prob_8_plus": 0.2811, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 89.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.5, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 82.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 80.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824187, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.7878, "prob_5_plus": 0.6507, "prob_6_plus": 0.5043, "prob_7_plus": 0.3676, "prob_8_plus": 0.253, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.998, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 78.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824832, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.7859, "prob_5_plus": 0.6482, "prob_6_plus": 0.5015, "prob_7_plus": 0.3649, "prob_8_plus": 0.2506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 82.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.7, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 78.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "matchup_score": 69.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824354, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "prob_4_plus": 0.7703, "prob_5_plus": 0.6275, "prob_6_plus": 0.4786, "prob_7_plus": 0.3428, "prob_8_plus": 0.2315, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 79.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.6, "expected_contact_quality": 65.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824512, "pitcher_id": 675911, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "prob_4_plus": 0.761, "prob_5_plus": 0.6155, "prob_6_plus": 0.4655, "prob_7_plus": 0.3304, "prob_8_plus": 0.2209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.064, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 89.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt McLain", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.1, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 89.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824512, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.7392, "prob_5_plus": 0.5878, "prob_6_plus": 0.436, "prob_7_plus": 0.3028, "prob_8_plus": 0.198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.064, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 103.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 98.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824430, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.7205, "prob_5_plus": 0.5647, "prob_6_plus": 0.4119, "prob_7_plus": 0.281, "prob_8_plus": 0.1802, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 77.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.1, "expected_contact_quality": 63.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 69.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 825001, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 71.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.8, "expected_contact_quality": 102.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 825001, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 75.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.3, "expected_contact_quality": 98.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 52.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 109.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 822895, "pitcher_id": 683004, "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "prob_4_plus": 0.6798, "prob_5_plus": 0.516, "prob_6_plus": 0.363, "prob_7_plus": 0.2381, "prob_8_plus": 0.1465, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.5, "expected_contact_quality": 73.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 46.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 823373, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.956, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 59.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.3, "expected_contact_quality": 100.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 107.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 114.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824430, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "prob_4_plus": 0.6418, "prob_5_plus": 0.4726, "prob_6_plus": 0.3214, "prob_7_plus": 0.2033, "prob_8_plus": 0.1204, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 81.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 63.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 822895, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.0, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 823133, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "prob_5_plus": 0.446, "prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "prob_8_plus": 0.106, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.903, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.8, "expected_contact_quality": 61.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.0, "expected_contact_quality": 130.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 117.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 823133, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.903, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 48.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 42.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824592, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "prob_8_plus": 0.087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 44.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 43.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.9, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 822729, "pitcher_id": 641793, "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.5486, "prob_5_plus": 0.3739, "prob_6_plus": 0.2335, "prob_7_plus": 0.1349, "prob_8_plus": 0.0727, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 54.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.8, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.0, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.5, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824354, "pitcher_id": 685299, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "prob_4_plus": 0.5256, "prob_5_plus": 0.3511, "prob_6_plus": 0.2146, "prob_7_plus": 0.1212, "prob_8_plus": 0.0638, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 42.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 822729, "pitcher_id": 656288, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "prob_6_plus": 0.206, "prob_7_plus": 0.115, "prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 41.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 40.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.3, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 823053, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "prob_4_plus": 0.4908, "prob_5_plus": 0.3177, "prob_6_plus": 0.1877, "prob_7_plus": 0.1023, "prob_8_plus": 0.0519, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 35.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.5, "expected_contact_quality": 61.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 32.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 48.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 26.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.6, "expected_contact_quality": 131.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 822976, "pitcher_id": 686799, "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.086, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 103.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "matchup_score": 28.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 43.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 824592, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.4112, "prob_5_plus": 0.2464, "prob_6_plus": 0.1341, "prob_7_plus": 0.067, "prob_8_plus": 0.0311, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "game_pk": 823621, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.3991, "prob_5_plus": 0.2362, "prob_6_plus": 0.1268, "prob_7_plus": 0.0625, "prob_8_plus": 0.0286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.972, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "matchup_score": 32.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 63.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 28.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 27.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.2, "expected_contact_quality": 114.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 693686, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 837227, "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696136, "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }