{ "date": "2026-05-29", "generated_at": "2026-05-29T09:03:29.752382", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823946, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.66, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 68.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.8547, "prob_5_plus": 0.7443, "prob_6_plus": 0.6144, "prob_7_plus": 0.4807, "prob_8_plus": 0.3572, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.949, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 92.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 162.7, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 87.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "matchup_score": 79.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823623, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 64.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "prob_4_plus": 0.8128, "prob_5_plus": 0.6846, "prob_6_plus": 0.5429, "prob_7_plus": 0.406, "prob_8_plus": 0.2873, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 92.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 88.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 162.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 825002, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 48.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 82.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.7, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 824353, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.134, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 79.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 822894, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 26.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.76, "adjustment_delta": -0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "prob_4_plus": 0.7821, "prob_5_plus": 0.6431, "prob_6_plus": 0.4958, "prob_7_plus": 0.3593, "prob_8_plus": 0.2458, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.061, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823135, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 67.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 49.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.867, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823377, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 66.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 67.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.0, "expected_contact_quality": 88.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.1, "expected_contact_quality": 97.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823055, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 48.0, "opportunity_score": 56.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 103.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 824515, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.6969, "prob_5_plus": 0.5361, "prob_6_plus": 0.383, "prob_7_plus": 0.2553, "prob_8_plus": 0.1599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 66.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 98.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt McLain", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 100.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 825002, "pitcher_id": 622663, "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 27.3, "opportunity_score": 72.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29975.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 138.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 40.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 105.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 824835, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 21.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.9, "expected_contact_quality": 100.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823623, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 51.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 149.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 40.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 134.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823135, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.113, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": 49.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.867, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 52.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 147.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 46.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.7, "expected_contact_quality": 120.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 822978, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.5923, "prob_5_plus": 0.4188, "prob_6_plus": 0.2724, "prob_7_plus": 0.1643, "prob_8_plus": 0.0926, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 52.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 824353, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "prob_4_plus": 0.5825, "prob_5_plus": 0.4085, "prob_6_plus": 0.2633, "prob_7_plus": 0.1573, "prob_8_plus": 0.0878, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.134, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 824433, "pitcher_id": 677944, "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 46.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "prob_8_plus": 0.087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.021, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Caleb Durbin", "matchup_score": 37.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 62.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "matchup_score": 35.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 822732, "pitcher_id": 608337, "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "prob_4_plus": 0.5675, "prob_5_plus": 0.393, "prob_6_plus": 0.2498, "prob_7_plus": 0.147, "prob_8_plus": 0.0808, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 46.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 824594, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 39.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "prob_4_plus": 0.5363, "prob_5_plus": 0.3616, "prob_6_plus": 0.2233, "prob_7_plus": 0.1274, "prob_8_plus": 0.0678, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 39.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 36.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 104.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 822894, "pitcher_id": 663568, "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 69.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "prob_4_plus": 0.531, "prob_5_plus": 0.3564, "prob_6_plus": 0.2189, "prob_7_plus": 0.1243, "prob_8_plus": 0.0658, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.061, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.0, "expected_contact_quality": 73.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 35.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 824515, "pitcher_id": 663978, "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 7.8, "opportunity_score": 25.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "prob_4_plus": 0.522, "prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17770.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 30.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 143.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 28.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 143.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "game_pk": 823055, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 39.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 34.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 54.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 687606, "pitcher_name": "Paxton Schultz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701719, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Samaniego", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678906, "pitcher_name": "Kai-Wei Teng", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 689441, "pitcher_name": "Coleman Crow", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }