{ "date": "2026-04-30", "generated_at": "2026-04-29T21:15:36.544971", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 18, "skipped_start_count": 1, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823391, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 48.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.16, "skill_score": 42.5, "opportunity_score": 28.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 98.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "prob_4_plus": 0.8178, "prob_5_plus": 0.6915, "prob_6_plus": 0.551, "prob_7_plus": 0.4142, "prob_8_plus": 0.2947, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 48.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.93, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 96.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 93.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 86.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823472, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 60.0, "opportunity_score": 70.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.061, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 82.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823634, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 47.1, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.951, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 79.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.5, "expected_contact_quality": 62.3 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.7, "expected_contact_quality": 104.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 67.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823795, "pitcher_id": 605540, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Woodruff", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 45.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "prob_4_plus": 0.7831, "prob_5_plus": 0.6444, "prob_6_plus": 0.4973, "prob_7_plus": 0.3607, "prob_8_plus": 0.247, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7949.0, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.973, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 83.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.8, "expected_contact_quality": 80.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "matchup_score": 79.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 75.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823714, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 35.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "skill_score": 48.2, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "prob_4_plus": 0.7782, "prob_5_plus": 0.638, "prob_6_plus": 0.4901, "prob_7_plus": 0.3538, "prob_8_plus": 0.241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 35.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.943, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 69.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.5, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823472, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 83.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "prob_4_plus": 0.762, "prob_5_plus": 0.6169, "prob_6_plus": 0.467, "prob_7_plus": 0.3317, "prob_8_plus": 0.2221, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.061, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.4 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 67.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 824929, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 17.6, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 44.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.8, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 824929, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 15.9, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.54, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.3, "expected_contact_quality": 102.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.0, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 824524, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.51, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 68.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823714, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 35.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 26.6, "opportunity_score": 45.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 35.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.943, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 109.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 59.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.6, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 825016, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "prob_4_plus": 0.6161, "prob_5_plus": 0.4443, "prob_6_plus": 0.2953, "prob_7_plus": 0.1822, "prob_8_plus": 0.1052, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 63.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 95.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 61.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.7, "expected_contact_quality": 100.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 825016, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 55.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjustment_delta": -0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.93, "prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "prob_6_plus": 0.283, "prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.0, "expected_contact_quality": 74.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 44.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823795, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "skill_score": 40.6, "opportunity_score": 58.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.589, "prob_5_plus": 0.4154, "prob_6_plus": 0.2694, "prob_7_plus": 0.1619, "prob_8_plus": 0.091, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.973, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 41.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.0, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 38.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.4, "expected_contact_quality": 113.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 38.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.4, "expected_contact_quality": 61.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 824848, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 38.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.121, "prob_4_plus": 0.5775, "prob_5_plus": 0.4034, "prob_6_plus": 0.2588, "prob_7_plus": 0.1538, "prob_8_plus": 0.0854, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.086, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 75.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 54.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 101.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 824524, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 824850, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.4833, "prob_5_plus": 0.3107, "prob_6_plus": 0.1822, "prob_7_plus": 0.0985, "prob_8_plus": 0.0496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.086, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 52.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 31.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823391, "pitcher_id": 690928, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Dobbins", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 48.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 15.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4095.0, "temperature_f": 48.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.93, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 42.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 106.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "matchup_score": 32.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 62.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "game_pk": 823634, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 35.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.387, "prob_5_plus": 0.2261, "prob_6_plus": 0.1197, "prob_7_plus": 0.0582, "prob_8_plus": 0.0263, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.951, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 26.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.8, "expected_contact_quality": 135.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 22.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 21.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 132.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 621121, "pitcher_name": "Lance McCullers Jr.", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }