{ "date": "2026-04-09", "generated_at": "2026-04-09T09:22:03.374369", "projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "training_sample_size": 10050, "minimum_training_starts": 75, "feature_names": [ "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts", "pitcher_k_per_bf_season", "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1", "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2", "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5", "pitcher_outs_per_start_season", "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1", "pitcher_bf_per_start_season", "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1", "pitcher_start_count_season", "pitcher_start_count_3yr", "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days", "opponent_k_rate_season", "opponent_k_rate_prev_1", "is_home", "days_rest_capped" ], "projected_start_count": 11, "skipped_start_count": 1, "skip_reasons": { "No probable starter was listed.": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "game_pk": 823884, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.1, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.194579, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.229911, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.231953, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.200594, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.05272, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.621339, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.901673, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.739683, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.924604, "pitcher_start_count_season": 2.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 25.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823884, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.23, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.189638, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.216686, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.219332, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.200812, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.755983, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.766945, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.583682, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.847303, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.934129, "pitcher_start_count_season": 2.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 8.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823565, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.83, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.240251, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.236997, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.221202, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.218459, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 13.809991, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 14.437192, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.04649, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 20.92628, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.40785, "pitcher_start_count_season": 2.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 26.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823565, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.37, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.218913, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.224396, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.191995, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.236451, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.772147, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.018596, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.77092, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.918695, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.033532, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 38.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 6.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823724, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 690953, "pitcher_name": "Mick Abel", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.01, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.208272, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.206413, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.219256, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219332, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 12.371746, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 14.066016, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 14.324268, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 20.48599, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 20.296739, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 9.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823724, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 656427, "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.83, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.256054, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.270531, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.265824, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.280172, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 14.451417, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.183454, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.581386, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.964039, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.959544, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 60.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823645, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.77, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.307319, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.272777, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.265976, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219332, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 16.247768, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.426081, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.657601, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.204057, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.630072, "pitcher_start_count_season": 2.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 10.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 6.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823645, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.52, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.184249, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.193299, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.208412, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.214307, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 17.233398, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.437876, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.867611, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 23.705784, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 23.419008, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 40.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 6.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824130, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.93, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.21952, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.213594, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.20749, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.217052, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.859162, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.551929, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.439912, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.952029, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 23.065036, "pitcher_start_count_season": 2.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 61.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824130, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 3.98, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.225645, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.222126, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.219332, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219332, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.217089, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.407717, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.583682, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.830337, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.934129, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 1.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823319, "game_date": "2026-04-09", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10050, "predicted_strikeouts": 3.36, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.181877, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.151956, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.15107, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.167775, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.853002, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.403378, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.0788, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.576328, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.398369, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 47.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224223, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224223, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "game_pk": 823319, "pitcher_name": "Colorado Rockies", "reason": "No probable starter was listed." } ] }