{ "date": "2026-09-10", "generated_at": "2026-09-10T23:41:56.679000", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-09-10", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 27, "matched_count": 24, "unmatched_count": 3 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 24, "grouped_pitcher_count": 8, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 24, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 25.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 87.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.2283, "edge_under": 0.1669, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1669, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 25.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 87.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5247, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4753, "edge_over": -0.2244, "edge_under": 0.1619, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1619, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:53.552Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 25.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 87.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.2124, "edge_under": 0.1431, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1431, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -173, "under_odds": 134, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 35.1, "opportunity_score": 22.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.435, "model_under_probability": 0.565, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6337, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5972, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4028, "edge_over": -0.1987, "edge_under": 0.1376, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1376, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 35.1, "opportunity_score": 22.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.435, "model_under_probability": 0.565, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5796, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4204, "edge_over": -0.1804, "edge_under": 0.1186, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1186, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:39.573Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 35.1, "opportunity_score": 22.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.435, "model_under_probability": 0.565, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1804, "edge_under": 0.1105, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1105, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3353, "model_under_probability": 0.6647, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.132, "edge_under": 0.0712, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0712, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:39.250Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3353, "model_under_probability": 0.6647, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1409, "edge_under": 0.0647, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0647, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3353, "model_under_probability": 0.6647, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.1234, "edge_under": 0.0647, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0647, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:53.552Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 50.1, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4531, "model_under_probability": 0.5469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1302, "edge_under": 0.0591, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0591, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": -178, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 8.3, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4623, "model_under_probability": 0.5377, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6403, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3982, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6018, "edge_over": 0.0386, "edge_under": -0.1026, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0386, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 50.1, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4531, "model_under_probability": 0.5469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.0964, "edge_under": 0.0371, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0371, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 50.1, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4531, "model_under_probability": 0.5469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.0924, "edge_under": 0.0323, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0323, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -169, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 8.3, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4623, "model_under_probability": 0.5377, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4111, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5889, "edge_over": 0.0237, "edge_under": -0.0906, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0237, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -103, "under_odds": -123, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5307, "model_under_probability": 0.4693, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4791, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5209, "edge_over": 0.0233, "edge_under": -0.0823, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0233, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.62, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5307, "model_under_probability": 0.4693, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": 0.0209, "edge_under": -0.0802, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0209, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.62, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:17.918Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 8.3, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4623, "model_under_probability": 0.5377, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": 0.0179, "edge_under": -0.0849, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0179, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:39.573Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 6.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "skill_score": 53.4, "opportunity_score": 49.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5165, "model_under_probability": 0.4835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0043, "edge_under": -0.0721, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0043, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "skill_score": 53.4, "opportunity_score": 49.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5165, "model_under_probability": 0.4835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4885, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5115, "edge_over": -0.0004, "edge_under": -0.0578, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "skill_score": 53.4, "opportunity_score": 49.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5165, "model_under_probability": 0.4835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4896, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5104, "edge_over": -0.0027, "edge_under": -0.0578, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:17.918Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5082, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4918, "edge_over": -0.0599, "edge_under": -0.0052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:39.250Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5307, "model_under_probability": 0.4693, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0148, "edge_under": -0.0545, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0148, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.62, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:38.234Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.0491, "edge_under": -0.0163, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0163, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-10T11:53:52.389Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.0186, "edge_under": -0.0428, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0186, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }