{ "date": "2026-05-14", "generated_at": "2026-05-13T22:10:05.713116", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-14", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 12, "matched_count": 7, "unmatched_count": 5 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 7, "grouped_pitcher_count": 6, "sportsbook_count": 2 }, "edge_count": 7, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-14T02:01:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 45.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2618, "model_under_probability": 0.7382, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4661, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5339, "edge_over": -0.2284, "edge_under": 0.1768, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1768, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-14T02:00:49.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 52.3, "opportunity_score": 22.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3106, "model_under_probability": 0.6894, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5031, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4969, "edge_over": -0.2221, "edge_under": 0.1633, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1633, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-14T02:00:42.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -141, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 59.3, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4047, "model_under_probability": 0.5953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4475, "edge_over": -0.1804, "edge_under": 0.1214, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1214, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-14T02:00:31.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 59.3, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4047, "model_under_probability": 0.5953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661, "edge_over": -0.1567, "edge_under": 0.1051, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1051, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-14T02:00:49.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3493, "model_under_probability": 0.6507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.1557, "edge_under": 0.0951, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0951, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-14T02:01:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -124, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 61.1, "opportunity_score": 43.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.418, "model_under_probability": 0.582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5279, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4721, "edge_over": -0.1356, "edge_under": 0.087, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.087, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": -168, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3722, "model_under_probability": 0.6278, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4033, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5967, "edge_over": -0.0515, "edge_under": 0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }