{ "date": "2026-05-04", "generated_at": "2026-05-06T10:47:20.861383", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-04", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 73, "matched_count": 55, "unmatched_count": 18 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 55, "grouped_pitcher_count": 15, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 55, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:21.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.2337, "edge_under": 0.1659, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1659, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:54.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "skill_score": 53.9, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2836, "model_under_probability": 0.7164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.2164, "edge_under": 0.1419, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1419, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:19.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -152, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "skill_score": 53.9, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4019, "model_under_probability": 0.5981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5635, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4365, "edge_over": -0.2013, "edge_under": 0.1308, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1308, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:44.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4394, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5606, "edge_over": -0.1866, "edge_under": 0.128, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.128, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:45.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.1977, "edge_under": 0.128, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.128, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:44.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -119, "under_odds": -107, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 63.8, "opportunity_score": 64.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3566, "model_under_probability": 0.6434, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5125, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4875, "edge_over": -0.1868, "edge_under": 0.1265, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1265, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "skill_score": 53.9, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4019, "model_under_probability": 0.5981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5585, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4415, "edge_over": -0.1949, "edge_under": 0.1264, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1264, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:17.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4092, "model_under_probability": 0.5908, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4449, "edge_over": -0.1793, "edge_under": 0.1191, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1191, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 53.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:43.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 119, "under_odds": -153, "expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "skill_score": 53.9, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2836, "model_under_probability": 0.7164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4302, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5698, "edge_over": -0.173, "edge_under": 0.1117, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1117, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:21.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 63.8, "opportunity_score": 64.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3566, "model_under_probability": 0.6434, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1672, "edge_under": 0.0979, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0979, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:45.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 63.8, "opportunity_score": 64.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3566, "model_under_probability": 0.6434, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1672, "edge_under": 0.0979, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0979, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:23.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4092, "model_under_probability": 0.5908, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1671, "edge_under": 0.0958, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0958, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 53.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:54.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1592, "edge_under": 0.0899, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0899, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:48.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -172, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 31.1, "opportunity_score": 74.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4786, "model_under_probability": 0.5214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4095, "edge_over": -0.1538, "edge_under": 0.0828, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0828, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:56.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 31.1, "opportunity_score": 74.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3428, "model_under_probability": 0.6572, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.1572, "edge_under": 0.0827, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0827, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5192, "edge_over": -0.15, "edge_under": 0.0798, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0798, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:19.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5192, "edge_over": -0.15, "edge_under": 0.0798, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0798, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:43.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5302, "edge_over": -0.1329, "edge_under": 0.074, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.074, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:19.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4092, "model_under_probability": 0.5908, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1363, "edge_under": 0.067, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.067, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 53.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:41.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -137, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 13.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5486, "model_under_probability": 0.4514, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5448, "edge_over": 0.0655, "edge_under": -0.1267, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0655, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:20.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 31.1, "opportunity_score": 74.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3428, "model_under_probability": 0.6572, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5588, "edge_over": -0.1245, "edge_under": 0.0654, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0654, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 13.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5486, "model_under_probability": 0.4514, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4621, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5379, "edge_over": 0.0536, "edge_under": -0.1249, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0536, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:29.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 13.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5486, "model_under_probability": 0.4514, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4621, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5379, "edge_over": 0.0536, "edge_under": -0.1249, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0536, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:01.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -129, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4681, "model_under_probability": 0.5319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5323, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4677, "edge_over": -0.0952, "edge_under": 0.0369, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4681, "model_under_probability": 0.5319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1082, "edge_under": 0.0369, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:26.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4681, "model_under_probability": 0.5319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1082, "edge_under": 0.0369, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:21.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 13.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5486, "model_under_probability": 0.4514, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0364, "edge_under": -0.1042, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0364, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 29.2, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": 0.0291, "edge_under": -0.0984, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0291, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:20.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 29.2, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": 0.0291, "edge_under": -0.0984, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0291, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:16.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 27.3, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4449, "model_under_probability": 0.5551, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.0812, "edge_under": 0.0202, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0202, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 27.3, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4449, "model_under_probability": 0.5551, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4939, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5061, "edge_over": -0.0834, "edge_under": 0.0138, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0138, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:21.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 27.3, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4449, "model_under_probability": 0.5551, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4939, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5061, "edge_over": -0.0834, "edge_under": 0.0138, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0138, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 68.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0098, "edge_under": -0.0797, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:20.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 68.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0098, "edge_under": -0.0797, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:18.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 29.2, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.544, "edge_over": 0.009, "edge_under": -0.0684, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:38.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4681, "model_under_probability": 0.5319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0774, "edge_under": 0.0081, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0081, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:21.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 14.3, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5202, "model_under_probability": 0.4798, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0798, "edge_under": 0.0036, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:18.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 68.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4344, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5656, "edge_over": 0.0035, "edge_under": -0.0643, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0035, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:15.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 27.3, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4449, "model_under_probability": 0.5551, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0673, "edge_under": -0.0005, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:56.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.32, "skill_score": 40.6, "opportunity_score": 53.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5719, "model_under_probability": 0.4281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0026, "edge_under": -0.0719, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0026, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "pitcher_id": 694477, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:32.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 29.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5588, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4412, "edge_over": -0.0061, "edge_under": -0.053, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0061, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.128, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9640.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:11.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.32, "skill_score": 40.6, "opportunity_score": 53.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4358, "model_under_probability": 0.5642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.46, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.54, "edge_over": -0.052, "edge_under": -0.0084, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0084, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:04:41.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 14.3, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5202, "model_under_probability": 0.4798, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": -0.0506, "edge_under": -0.0104, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0104, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:49.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -172, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.32, "skill_score": 40.6, "opportunity_score": 53.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5719, "model_under_probability": 0.4281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4095, "edge_over": -0.0605, "edge_under": -0.0105, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0105, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 14.3, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5202, "model_under_probability": 0.4798, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0561, "edge_under": -0.0152, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0152, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:29.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 14.3, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5202, "model_under_probability": 0.4798, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0561, "edge_under": -0.0152, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0152, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4464, "model_under_probability": 0.5536, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.0166, "edge_under": -0.0527, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:26.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4464, "model_under_probability": 0.5536, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.0166, "edge_under": -0.0527, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:42.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 29.2, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0201, "edge_under": -0.0477, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0201, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:01.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4464, "model_under_probability": 0.5536, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.0298, "edge_under": -0.0297, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0297, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "pitcher_id": 694477, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:00.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 29.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0402, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0297, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.128, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9640.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "pitcher_id": 694477, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 29.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0402, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0297, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.128, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9640.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "pitcher_id": 694477, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:19.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 29.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0402, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0297, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.128, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9640.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:38.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4464, "model_under_probability": 0.5536, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0298, "edge_under": -0.0464, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0298, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T22:05:42.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 68.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0357, "edge_under": -0.0388, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0357, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Chase Petty", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Petty", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Petty", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Petty", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }